On 4 December 2016, Italian voters will be asked the following question:
Do you approve a constitutional law that concerns abolishing the bicameral system (of parliament), reducing the number of MPs, containing the operating costs of public institutions, abolishing the National Council on Economy and Labor (CNEL), and amending Title V of the Constitution, Part II?
While this question seems rather technical and perhaps a bit insignificant, the political ramifications are drastic. Matteo Renzi, the centre-left Prime Minister of Italy, has stated that the referendum is so important that he would resign if the voters did not answer “yes”. That pledge has led many to in the country to view the question as a referendum on Renzi’s governance. At this moment, the polls signify a toss-up, with both “Yes” and “No” garnering 50% of the projected vote.
The referendum aims to bring stability to a rather tumultuous democracy that has had 63 premierships in the last seven decades. Both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, the two houses in Italy’s bicameral legislature, have an equal amount of power in government. This often to leads to a deleterious amount of gridlock, as both chambers must approve each bill in an identical form.
The proposed referendum would reduce the number of Senate members from 315 to 100 and give the institution far less power than the Chamber of Deputies. It also seeks to eliminate Italy’s 110 provinces—regions that typically have overlapping duties and whose governments serve as yet another layer of bureaucracy. The National Council for Economics and Labour, a group of 64 councillors who advise the government, would also be abolished under the proposal.
These reforms would greatly streamline the Italian political process and most citizens would be foolish to oppose them ceteris paribus. They are slated to save the Italian government €500 million. With Renzi’s injudicious decision to personalise the referendum, however, many view it as a conduit to oppose the current government that has failed to deliver economic growth. The country’s national debt has reached 132.7% of GDP and the entire banking sector is facing heightened risk due to debt accumulated during anaemic economic growth.
Renzi is now even facing dissent within his own party; Ignazio Marino, the former mayor of Rome, and Gianni Cupelo, the President of the Democratic Party, are now campaigning against the referendum. In another section of the political spectrum, Beppe Grillo’s syncretic populist Five Star Movement seeks to mount a significant political victory if the referendum fails, and is has now reached parity with the Democrats in the polls.
If “the referendum is about the future of the country, not about mine,” as Renzi told Radiotelevisione italiana last Friday, then he should seek to make the referendum focus on ameliorating the pressing issues in the Italian political system, not his electoral viability.